The AFC South will be one of the more competitive and exciting divisions in 2023, even though they may only send one team to the postseason again. Last year’s AFC South champs, the Jacksonville Jaguars, went 9-8 but took advantage of home field to beat the L.A. Chargers in the wild-card playoff round and gave Kansas City all they wanted in the divisional round. This is an exciting team – and at least two of the other three teams in the division have a chance to be exciting as well. Will Derrick Henry be back at full strength for the Tennessee Titans? Will Ryan Tannehill thrive with a new OC, or will we see Will Levis or Malik Willis take over the offense? Is Anthony Richardson ready to be the next franchise quarterback in Indianapolis? Will the team smooth things over with star tailback Jonathan Taylor? How will C.J. Stroud do in Houston with a team around him that is barely NFL-level talent? If you like to include win total props in your NFL betting, then check out our projections for each team in the AFC South.
NFL Betting News: AFC South Win Total Projections for 2023/24 Season
NFL Specials Odds: 9.5
Last Year 2022: 9
Much like the Detroit Lions, the Jacksonville Jaguars came out of nowhere in the second half of the 2022 season to go on a run. Unlike the Lions, the Jaguars were in a division where no one else really seemed interested in winning, so their division crown got them into the postseason. Now they come back for a second season under Doug Pedersen, and Calvin Ridley comes to town as an elite wide receiver option – and back at full health. The Jaguars play the AFC North, the NFC South, San Francisco, Buffalo, and Kansas City. That’s what happens when you win your division – you get three other division winners from the previous year on your schedule. The NFC South isn’t all tha scary this year, but the AFC North could have four tough teams, and all three of those division winners will be tough games as well. Can the Jaguars sweep their division slate? I’m not sure they can do better than 4-2 this year. It’s ahrd to get to 10 wins that way. Take the under.
Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars 9.5
NFL Specials Odds: 7.5
Last Year 2022: 7
The collapse of the Titans in 2022 had a lot to do with their offensive system – and the failure of Derrick Henry to return as his dominant self. Coming into 2023, the offensive line is a patchwork unit as best, led by first-round draft choice Peter Skoronski. When a rookie is your best player, that’s not cause for optimism. On defense, the Titans have a solid back seven, so the defense won’t get torched, but it could wear out if the offense can’t sustain drives and put up points. The Titans play the NFC South, the AFC North, the Chargers, Seattle, and Miami. I do think that the young quarterbacks elsewhere in the division will make the sort of mistakes that give the Titans some wins, and if Anthony Richardson stumbles, this is the team that I like to sneak in and take the division title. Take the over.
Bet on the Tennessee Titans 7.5
NFL Specials Odds: 6.5
Last Year 2022: 3
The optimism in Houston is based on an improved offensive line, but that optimism assumes that Kenyon Green will transform from rookie disappointment to savvy sophomore, and the middle of the O-line needs help. On defense, the team is still very young. Tight end Dalton Schultz, who came from Dallas via free agency, is the safety blanket for the offense right now. That’s not an encouraging sign. The Texans play the NFC South, the AFC North, Denver, Arizona, and the Jets. Even if the Texans split in their own division and split with the NFC South, it’s hard to find two more wins on this schedule. Take the under.
Bet on the Houston Texans 6.5
NFL Specials Odds: 6.5
Last Year 2022: 4
It’s pretty easy to get excited about a tandem of Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor leading the offense. The OC this year is Shane Steichen, and he was able to turn tailbacks Kenneth Gainwell and Miles Sanders look elite in Philadelphia. Tehy are not elite tailbacks. He should be able to make Taylor shine, and Richardson is also dangerous with his legs. The Colts’ defense has been elite the last few seasons, but this time around the secondary is young. The offense should be able to do a better job of holding up its end of the bargain, with an RPO and play-action game that will also involve terrific receivers on the outside. The Colts play the NFC South, the AFC North, the Rams, New England, and Las Vegas. Those are three winnable games against results-based opponents, so if the Colts can just split their six divisional games, this is a highly achievable win total. Take the over.
Bet on the Indianapolis Colts 6.5
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Updated at August 8th, 2023TeamsOddsKansas City Chiefs+580Philadelphia Eagles+710Buffalo Bills+870San Francisco 49ers+930Cincinnati Bengals +1000Dallas Cowboys+1375New York Jets+1500Baltimore Ravens+1800 Detroit Lions+2100 Miami Dolphins+2300 Los Angeles Chargers +2400 Jacksonville Jaguars+2700 Seattle Seahawks+3200 New Orleans Saints+3300 Cleveland Browns+3300 Minnesota Vikings+3700 Denver Broncos+4300 Pittsburgh Steelers+4800 Chicago Bears+5200 New York Giants+5200 Green Bay Packers+5200 New England Patriots+5800 Atlanta Falcons+6000 Las Vegas Raiders+6600 Washington Commanders+6800 Carolina Panthers+6800 Los Angeles Rams+7000Tennessee Titans+7000 Tampa Bay Buccaneers+9000 Indianapolis Colts+11000 Houston Texans+18000 Arizona Cardinals+19000
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