Remember when the Cincinnati Reds got off to a 20-4 start to the 2023 MLB season? We thought that they would fall off the table after that, simply on the basis of roster talent, but they’re still in the thick of the National League wild-card hunt with a 64-59 record. The Arizona Diamondbacks roared out to a 50-36 start, leading the National League West just before the All-Star break, but they have gone 12-25 since and are now a staggering 13 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 162-game regular season is a marathon that turns golden Aprils into fond but forgotten memories by the middle of the summer. With six weeks left, which teams will make it into the MLB Playoff – and which teams won’t? Let’s see more closer those teams that could affect your MLB odds.
MLB Playoff News: Which Teams Will Make the Postseason with Six Weeks Left? Which Teams Won’t?
Baltimore Orioles (75-47, lead East by two over Tampa Bay, 98.7% playoff chance)Minnesota Twins (64-59, lead Central by five over Cleveland, 92.9% playoff chance)Texas Rangers (72-50, lead West by 2 ½ over Houston, 92.0% playoff chance)Tampa Bay Rays (74-50, first wild-card position, 97.6% playoff chance)Houston Astros (70-53, second wild-card position, 89.6% playoff chance)Seattle Mariners (67-55, third wild-card position, 48.8% playoff chance)Toronto Blue Jays (67-56, ½ – game out of wild card, 57.9% playoff chance)Boston Red Sox (64-58, 3 games out of wild card, 12.8% playoff chance)Cleveland Guardians (59-64, 8 ½ games out of wild card, 6.6% playoff chance)
The Twins should hold on and win the Central division. They largely held pat at the trade deadline, and their offense is mediocre, but their starting pitching replacement value leads MLB, and their bullpen is ranked 12th. Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan are both in the top five in total replacement value, and the Twins have the lowest expected runs permitted per game (3.77). They are helped by their place in the league’s worst division. So the Twins are in and the Guardians are out.
The Astros got Justin Verlander from the Mets and Kendall Graveman from the White Sox at the trade deadline, but the Rangers got Max Scherzer, who has three Cy Young Awards, from the Mets, and Jordan Montgomery from St. Louis. They also added catcher Austin Hedges for his pitch-framing prowess. The Mariners have the best record in MLB since July 1 (23-10). They will be neck and neck with Toronto down the stretch, though.
The East could have all of its teams over .500, which has never happened over a full season, and it could send two teams to the wild-card round if the Blue Jays or Red Sox heat up enough. The other wild-card team would likely be Houston or Texas. Texas did more at the trade deadline than Houston did, and manager Bruce Bochy has three World Series rings from his time with the Giants, so Texas has the advantage here – including some hunger because of that nagging status as a team that has never won the big one.
In: Texas, Minnesota, Baltimore (division titles)
Houston, Tampa Bay, Toronto (wild cards)
MLB Playoff: Bet on the American League!
Atlanta Braves (79-42, lead East by 13 ½ over Philadelphia, 99.9% playoff chance)Milwaukee Brewers (66-57, lead Central by two over Cincinnati, 81.0% playoff chance)L.A. Dodgers (74-47, lead West by 10 ½ over San Francisco, 99.9% playoff chance)Philadelphia Phillies (66-56, first wild-card position, 82.3% playoff chance)San Francisco Giants (64-58, second wild-card position, 60.7% playoff chance)Cincinnati Reds (64-59, third wild-card position, 33.0% playoff chance)Miami Marlins (64-59, third wild-card position, 49.0% playoff chance)Chicago Cubs (62-59, one game out of wild card, 45.5% playoff chance)Arizona Diamondbacks (62-61, 2 games out of wild card, 23.9% playoff chances)San Diego Padres (59-64, 5 games out of wild card, 22.7% playoff chances)
MLB Playoff: Bet on the National League!
In the East, MVP candidates Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna Jr are in the top six in replacement value, and Spencer Strider is the replacement value leader as a starting pitcher. In the West, the Dodgers have three players whose replacement value is in the top six: J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman. The Padres added Rich Hill, Scott Barlow, Garrett Cooper, and Ji-Man Choi at the trade deadline and have dropped their expected runs permitted per game to 4.00, third best in MLB. They have gone 17-13 since July 3, and Juan Soto’s bat is finally starting to heat up.
In the Central, the aforementioned Reds have two different six-game losing streaks in a recent 10-16 slump. The Brewers have taken the division back over, and getting starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff back from injury was key. At the trade deadline, the Brewers added Andrew Chafin, Carlos Santana and Mark Canha. Those acquisitions improved their expected win percentage for the season from .475 to .512. In the West, the Diamondbacks have gone 7-23 since July 2, so a rebound would be a surprise.
In: Atlanta, Milwaukee, L.A. Dodgers (division titles)
Philadelphia, San Francisco, Miami (wild cards)
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